Extended Rain Forecast: Monsoon Delay to Drench India Through December
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has announced that the withdrawal of the Southwest Monsoon is likely to be delayed this year, setting the stage for an extended period of rainfall across much of the country. This late exit means that the post-monsoon season—from October to December—is expected to bring normal to above-normal rainfall to most of India.
A Wet Start to the Post-Monsoon Season
The delay in the monsoon’s retreat is attributed to the continued presence of weather systems, including low-pressure areas over regions like the Bay of Bengal, which are unfavorable for its withdrawal. This is essentially prolonging the wet spell beyond its official end date.
For the month of October, the country as a whole is likely to record rainfall that is above normal (more than 115% of the Long Period Average). Most parts of the nation are expected to receive normal to above-normal showers, which could continue to benefit agriculture and water reservoirs.
Focus on South Peninsular India
Crucially, the forecast for the entire October to December period shows that South Peninsular India—which includes Tamil Nadu, Coastal Andhra Pradesh, Kerala, and South Interior Karnataka—is most likely to receive above-normal rainfall (more than 112% of the LPA). This region largely depends on the Northeast Monsoon during this season, and the forecast suggests a strong period of wet weather.
Regional Variations
While the overall outlook is wet, there are regional variations:
- Northwest India (including parts of Rajasthan, Haryana, Delhi, and Punjab) is the primary region expected to see below-normal rainfall prospects during this period.
- Some isolated pockets of the extreme south peninsular and northeast India may also experience below-normal rainfall.
Temperature and Past Performance
The extended wet conditions will also influence temperatures. Due to the continuing rain and cloud cover, maximum (day) temperatures are expected to remain normal to below normal across most of the country in October, providing a potential reprieve from the typical “October heat.” However, minimum (night) temperatures are likely to remain above normal in many eastern and central regions.
This delay comes on the heels of the Southwest Monsoon season (June to September) officially ending with an 8% surplus in all-India rainfall, marking it as one of the wettest seasons since 2001.
The IMD’s forecast clearly indicates that the rainy season isn’t quite over. While the delayed withdrawal and above-normal rainfall are generally positive for water resources, officials have also advised that the heightened activity brings an increased risk of flooding and related weather hazards in vulnerable areas.
